Mon Nov 23, 2009 10:35 pm EST

On Sundays, I watch football and take notes. On Mondays, I come here and whip up a ghoulash. Sit down for a spell and let's digest Week 11.
• There's a lot of fantasy frustration buzzing about with the Pierre Thomas situation in New Orleans, but don't pin all the blame on Sean Payton. Save a little bit for yourself, PT owner.
Our numbers racket isn't limited to scouting the players – our make-believe thing is about situations, game flow, coaching tendencies and the like. Yes, Thomas sure looks like the best back in New Orleans, he's jumped off the screen for two years now. But let's stop acting surprised when Thomas doesn't get a host of carries in any given game. Thomas is averaging just 13 carries per start in 2009, and he hasn't hit the 20 mark yet. For whatever reason, Payton doesn't want to burden Thomas with a heavy workload, and he keeps funneling scoring chances to his other backs (that's Mike Bell leaping to glory above, and Reggie Bush was on a touchdown binge before sitting out in Week 11).
Mind you, if Bell keeps doing the airborne thing 2-3 times a game, he'll have a hard time staying healthy for the balance of the year. And perhaps Payton is just looking to keep Thomas fresh, mindful of the fact that the Saints might have to play full-out for all 17 weeks to secure the NFC's top seed. Heavier touch counts might be ahead for Thomas if things break right, but at this point in time, it doesn't look like Payton will go in that direction by choice. Accept it for what it is.
• Kansas City's victory over Pittsburgh was a fun game and it added some juice to 2009 Survivor, but let's not misread the flukiness factor at play. Pittsburgh had 27 first downs, KC had 13. The Steelers outgained the Chiefs, 401-214. While you credit the Chiefs for forcing three turnovers and scoring on special teams, it's more important to be able to matriculate the ball down the field (or stop the other guys from doing the same). Look for order to be restored next week – San Diego will beat Kansas City soundly.
Thu Nov 19, 2009 1:46 pm EST
If I were drafting from scratch tonight (standard scoring, non-PPR), here's how I'd attack it. I welcome your respectful disagreement in the comments, but bring your A Game – if you disagree with a rank, offer a solid reason why and your preferred order of the players in question
Quarterback
1. Peyton Manning
2. Drew Brees
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Tom Brady
5. Philip Rivers
6. Matt Schaub
7. Ben Roethlisberger
8. Kurt Warner
9. Brett Favre
10. Tony Romo
11. Donovan McNabb
12. Jay Cutler
13. Carson Palmer
14. Eli Manning
15. Matt Ryan
16. David Garrard
17. Matt Hasselbeck
18. Joe Flacco
19. Alex Smith
20. Vince Young
21. Matt Cassel
22. Kyle Orton
23. Jason Campbell
24. Mark Sanchez
25. Jake Delhomme
26. Josh Freeman
27. Chad Henne
28. Matthew Stafford
29. Marc Bulger
30. Ryan Fitzpatrick
31. Kevin Kolb
32. Matt Leinart
33. Bruce Gradkowski
34. Brady Quinn
35. Daunte Culpepper
36. Trent Edwards
37. Seneca Wallace
38. JaMarcus Russell
Comments: It's been a smooth year for this position at the top end, lots of production, not a lot of injuries . . . Hard to deny Aaron Rodgers this spot based on how he's producing, but you better have a reliable backup, just in case. He's getting the tar kicked out of him weekly . . . Donovan McNabb's value probably gets a volume push if Brian Westbrook can't make it back . . . Sophomore slumps for Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, so it seems. Ryan really could use a pass-catching back to ease the pressure, while Flacco is trying to make a go of it without a legitimate No. 1 wideout.
Wed Nov 18, 2009 7:39 pm EST

Teams are back to work and there's plenty of important news to discuss, so settle in.
• Ronnie Brown landed on injured reserve Wednesday – that's it for his season. Obviously Ricky Williams gets a major boost from the news, but there's a broader angle to consider here – what becomes of the Dolphins Wildcat package, which basically used Brown as the triggerman? Scribble down the name Lex Hilliard as a possible deep sleeper; he's expected to get his first carries of the year Thursday night at Carolina. And look for more Pat White involvement in coming weeks. [Miami Herald]
• The Raiders are finally making a chance at quarterback – Bruce Gradkowski will start Sunday against Cincinnati and head coach Tom Cable says the plan is for Gradkowski to keep the job for the remainder of the season. You know all about JaMarcus Russell's lost season, so there's little need to elaborate on that. [Associated Press]
• Clinton Portis (post concussion) is considered "very doubtful" for Week 11 according to Jim Zorn, so get ready for more Ladell Betts against the Cowboys. As for Chris Cooley (ankle), check back early next week – he's scheduled to see an ankle specialist on Monday. [Washington Post]
• Julius Jones (lung) has already been counted out for Week 11's trip to Minnesota, but he has a shot at returning next week. Justin Forsett gets the tap to start against the Vikings, with Louis Rankin the change-of-pace option. [Seattle Post-Intelligencer]
Tue Nov 17, 2009 7:43 pm EST

We're coming out of the kitchen at a different time this week, so please microwave liberally. Here's my take on Week 10.
• It's been two days since Bill Belichick's controversial call and the battle lines have been drawn. Some feel Belichick is a shrewd genius with the guts of a burglar; others insist he's an egomaniac who fritted away a game the Patriots were likely to win. Old school on one side, new school on the other side.
I'm not convinced either call in the fourth down position is the clear-cut "right" call – I can see a solid case for both sides. My gut leans ever so slightly to punting in that spot, but I don't blame Belichick for playing his hand as he did. I admire his guts, and as a football writer and a fan of the league, I appreciate that he's given us such a meaty story to dissect and discuss.
From a fantasy perspective, we can learn from Belichick's MO. Don't play for the friendliest loss. Go for what you consider to be the most plausible win.
The sports world is filled with managers and coaches who are conventional and conservative to a fault. The save rule in baseball determines how most managers handle their bullpens. Spineless coaches often punt in the fourth quarter when trailing, even as the game might be within reach with aggressive play. Some decision makers seem to be hung up on making the least controversial decision in a tight spot. Forget playing for the win, the focus shifts to "playing not to be hammered by the media (and public) after the game."
I see the same risk-averse concepts seeping into a lot of our fantasy sports, and while that might be the best way to play it in a non-competitive group, I know from experience that you need to be aggressive if you want to win a strong league. Some owners are afraid to trade. Some owners won't bench a slumping player because he was an early pick. Some owners would rather let 4-5 rules of thumb dictate their lineup decisions rather than get their hands dirty.
Tue Nov 17, 2009 3:34 pm EST
You generally don't get a lot of NFL news on a Tuesday because most teams don't practice, but today is an exception. Let's have a good look around.
• The Chiefs have known about the pending Dwayne Bowe PED suspension for some time, and now it's out in the public. Bowe gets a four-game holiday, Chris Chambers gets reinvented as a fantasy No. 3 receiver while Lance Long becomes a trendy sleeper in deep groups. Bowe will miss the following four-game slate: Pittsburgh, at San Diego, Denver, Buffalo. [Associated Press]
• It could be a very sad endgame for Brian Westbrook - he's headed to a concussion specialist and there's no guarantees with him going forward. Then again, you also hope he gets off the field while his facilities are still intact. This news obviously pushes LeSean McCoy into flex consideration but it also makes Philadelphia even more of a pass-reliant team than before. [Adam Schefter on Twitter]
• The Dick Jauron era in Buffalo, how was it for you? The embattled Bills coach got the ax on Tuesday after a 24-33 run; his teams went 7-9 in each of his three complete seasons. Defensive coordinator Perry Fewell steps in to replace him. Ryan Fitzpatrick was expected to get the start at Jacksonville this week, not sure if that changes with the new direction. More to come on this story. [Jason LaCanfora on Twitter]
• Ken Whisenhunt likes the rotation he has going in his backfield and will keep Tim Hightower as the starter, with Beanie Wells the No. 2 option. Both backs look like strong plays against the Rams this week. [Arizona Republic]
Thu Nov 12, 2009 1:58 pm EST
If I were drafting from scratch tonight (standard scoring, non-PPR), here's how I'd attack it. I welcome your respectful disagreement in the comments, but bring your A Game – if you disagree with a rank, offer a solid reason why and your preferred order of the players in question.
Quarterback
1. Peyton Manning
2. Drew Brees
3. Philip Rivers
4. Tom Brady
5. Aaron Rodgers
6. Ben Roethlisberger
7. Matt Schaub
8. Brett Favre
9. Tony Romo
10. Kurt Warner
11. Jay Cutler
12. Donovan McNabb
13. Matt Ryan
14. Carson Palmer
15. Eli Manning
16. Joe Flacco
17. Matt Hasselbeck
18. David Garrard
19. Alex Smith
20. Matt Cassel
21. Vince Young
22. Mark Sanchez
23. Kyle Orton
24. Jason Campbell
25. Chad Henne
26. Matthew Stafford
27. Jake Delhomme
28. Josh Freeman
29. Kevin Kolb
30. Brady Quinn
31. Matt Leinart
32. Marc Bulger
33. Trent Edwards
34. JaMarcus Russell
35. Seneca Wallace
36. Ryan Fitzpatrick
37. Daunte Culpepper
38. Todd Collins
39. Kerry Collins
40. Shaun Hill
41. Derek Anderson
Comments: Tony Romo is one of the hardest guys to rank every week; this Dallas offense still looks like a whole that falls short of the sum of the parts. The goal-line execution hasn't been very good and at some point you stop getting lucky on those longer TDs (though Romo and friends do deserve credit for them, too). … Donovan McNabb is another tricky rank, maybe it's an NFC East thing. He's avoiding mistakes and he's pushed his YPA up to 7.6, but he's also completing a mediocre 58.9 percent of his passes and he's stopped the scrambling bit (73 yards). This is not a unit that sustains offense; even more than Dallas, the Eagles rely a little too much on the big play. … The presence of Vince Young in the Tennessee lineup changes how teams defend the Titans; you have to spy Young and respect his running ability, and that's probably helping Chris Johnson (who doesn't need much help anyway). … A lot has been made of Matt Ryan's growing pains but Joe Flacco's had some hiccups of late too, with three mediocre outings in his last five starts. He's thrilled to see Cincinnati off the schedule for good, but the Colts and Steelers come calling after this week's Cleveland stop. … The 3-7 slots could pretty much fall in any order. Aaron Rodgers would probably get the No. 3 nod if I were absolutely positive he will survive the pounding he's absorbing right now.
Wed Nov 11, 2009 7:54 pm EST
With NFL clubs back at work Wednesday, let's take a lap around the league and check the bumps and bruises.
• Everyone knows Clinton Portis is a baller, but the Redskins aren't going to take chances with him off a concussion; Jim Zorn says Portis is "very, very doubtful" to play against Denver. Ladell Betts is in line to start and isn't a bad flex option for Week 10, though Betts was held out of Wednesday's session due to a sore ankle. If you're very desperate in a gigantic league, Rock Cartwright saw some short-yardage work last week and might keep that role (albeit he didn't succeed in Atlanta). But barring some kind of setback in the next few days, Betts will be the featured back versus the Broncos, and he's got a safe path to touches.
• DeAngelo Williams missed Wednesday's practice with a sore knee, a mild surprise given how dynamic he's looked the last few weeks (he's got 630 total yards and five scores over his last four games). We'll keep a close eye on No. 34. Jonathan Stewart (Achilles) also rested, as he generally does on Wednesdays.
• Brian Westbrook was held out of Wednesday's practice because of an ankle sprain, but his status for Sunday's game at San Diego is tied more to his post-concussion issues. If he's headache free, he's expected to go. Wait as long as you can before making a decision on Westbrook, of course; as we've seen many times, there's nothing guaranteed with him until the game-day inactive list is announced.
• Anquan Boldin (ankle) had a full practice Wednesday and looks like a good bet to play against Seattle, but we know better than to make assumptions with him. As for Boldin's controversial comments about Ken Whisenhunt and the Arizona staff, the controversial wideout insists he's moved on. "I said what I had to say and I'm done with it," Boldin said after practice.
• Brandon Marshall has a sore back and was held out of Wednesday's session. This might not mean all that much given that he played Monday against Pittsburgh and was plenty active (11 receptions). We'll see what we learn in the next two days.
• Vernon Davis (shoulder) is listed as probable for Thursday's game at Chicago. We beg you to use him against the struggling Bears safeties and linebackers. Frank Gore (eye) is also listed as probable for the Niners and should start.
Wed Nov 11, 2009 2:20 am EST

No. 1 Star: David Perron, St. Louis Blues
The third-year left wing and former first-round pick seems to be improving with every shift, and he gave us his best game to date here, potting three goals as the Blues rolled past the Vancouver Canucks, 6-1. It's the second straight game he's been a difference-maker; Perron notched two points and had eight shots on goal in Sunday's overtime loss at Atlanta. The Blues have a good thing going with this line of Perron, Andy McDonald and Brad Boyes; that trio combined for five goals and 10 points on the evening (Boyes 1-3-4, McDonald 1-2-3).
No. 2 Star: Miikka Kiprusoff, Calgary Flames
So much for the October slump – the Calgary netminder has been fantastic in three November victories (just two goals allowed) and the Montreal Canadiens weren't able to beat him in 25 attempts here. Kipper gets the nod over the goaltender below for a few key reasons; he was working on the road, he faced more power-play opportunities, and he had less margin of error to work with (Calgary put just one shot past Jaroslav Halak, who was outstanding in his own right).
Tue Nov 10, 2009 7:19 pm EST

Some Tuesday news and nuggets, with a rant or two mixed in. Let's take a lap around the league.
• Brady Quinn is expected to get the Week 10 starting assignment for the Browns on Wednesday, then get pummeled Monday against the Ravens. How did the NFL allow the Browns, off their 2008 train wreck season, to get a Monday Night game this year? Don't be surprised if we get a little silly in Monday night's Shutdown Corner chat. It will be interesting to see if the Browns sell out for this one. [Cleveland Plain Dealer]
• I've seen Pittsburgh mentioned as a possible landing area for Larry Johnson (who passed through waivers Tuesday), but to me, that's nonsensical. For one thing LJ doesn't fit the locker-room culture the Steelers have established for decades, and more importantly, why would the Steelers want to bring in a back now that Rashard Mendenhall is spreading his wings? I'll give Pittsburgh the benefit of the doubt here, I don't think they'll be tricked into a broken-down Larry Johnson.
Three wild LJ guesses from me, and they're nothing but guesses: San Diego (LT looks cooked), Philadelphia (if they‘re worried about Brian Westbrook), Cincinnati (they're running Cedric Benson into the ground, depth would help). I also wouldn't be surprised if no one took the plunge (and if I ran an NFL club, that would be my stance – thanks, but no thanks). The Texans and Redskins have already said they're not interested in LJ. [Adam Schefter on Twitter]
• Christmas comes early with Thursday football returning to the airwaves – NFL Network gives us the 49ers and Bears in two days (Bob Papa and Matt Millen on the call). Vernon Davis is doing all he can to add juice to the matchup; he mocked Chicago's defense on Tuesday, something the Bears will be sure to take note of (along with Niners coach Mike Singletary). [Chicago Tribune]
Tue Nov 10, 2009 3:44 pm EST

It was a competitive game for one half, then it turned into a Pittsburgh beat down. Let's wrap the Monday nighter from a fantasy perspective.
With the Steelers: It took a half for the Pittsburgh offense to figure out Denver's defense, but man what a tail kicking the Steelers delivered in the second half. Ben Roethlisberger and friends put up 18 first downs and 321 yards of total offense after intermission, reminding a National TV audience that Pittsburgh deserves to be on anyone's short list of contenders.
Roethlisberger (21-for-29, 233 yards, 3 TDs) is playing far and away the best football of his life right now; other than one loose throw he made on a red-zone interception, it was hard to fault him for much of anything. Santonio Holmes got free of Champ Bailey and delivered a strong line (6-93), but it was Hines Ward (7-44) who got the touchdowns, including the window-dressing score, pictured above, with just 1:22 to play (hope it was good to you). Mike Wallace (4-69, TD) continues to justify the love as a flex play; he's scored in three of four games and he's averaging 65 yards per game over the last six weeks.
Rashard Mendenhall once again jumped off the screen, rumbling for 155 yards on 22 carries against one of the better defenses in the league. Mendenhall wasn't able to score on some late red-zone carries and he did go out of bounds prematurely on a few runs, but let's not nitpick too much. He looks like a star, a combination of power, patience and breakaway ability. The Pittsburgh run blocking has stepped it up in recent weeks as well. Mewelde Moore picked up four inconsequential carries and Willie Parker didn't have a touch; it's clear the Pittsburgh running game is hitched to No. 34.
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