MLS Playoffs: Friday MLS Forecast: MLS Cup

SEATTLE – When pondering how MLS Cup might unfold, beware of overarching storylines.

By now, the caricatures are easy to discern. Real Salt Lake, a plucky underdog from out of nowhere with no stars, one or two positive road results in an otherwise dismal slog away from Rio Tinto Stadium and three or four true believers who thought it could actually oust the top two seeds in the Eastern Conference to seal its first MLS Cup berth. Los Angeles, a once dysfunctional group turned around this season by a wise coach, a handful of savvy veteran acquisitions, a revamped defense, a fantastic book and a hatchet subsequently buried between its two biggest stars.

Those themes are easy to appreciate for their facility but worthy of scorn for their broad strokes. In those wide angle views, the details are wiped clean. David Beckham and Landon Donovan's star wattage obscure them in the Galaxy's case and a bunch of guys most casual observers don't know make it too hard to locate them in Real Salt Lake's instance.

Revealing those details will make all the difference as the final approaches. The edge in this match between two punctilious coaches and two diligent sides will rest in those hard-to-find little bits of knowledge masked by grander notions.

(Unless newly-crowned MVP and anciently-dubbed playoff killer Donovan just does his thing and takes over the game. Then it's all about the easy angle.)

Over the next two days, the Forecast will try to uncover the minutiae that could swing this match in either direction. Make no mistake: there isn't much between the two sides aside from Beckham and Donovan's top-end quality. Each team has strengths to favor and weaknesses to hide. Though the Forecast will explain why it picked RSL at the end of this column, this tilt is close enough to go either way on the day. As storylines go, a tense final would provide a plot worth following all the way through until Monday morning.

The Forecast saw one result go either way last weekend to ensure it would complete the postseason with more than half of its selections on the mark. Will its bold pick in the final cap a successful playoff run or end up as just another black mark in a season filled with inconsistent prognostications?

Last week: 1/2 (50%)
Playoffs: 5/8 (63%)
Final tally for the season: 88/195 (45%)

Sunday

Real Salt Lake v. Los Angeles – 8:55p.m. (ESPN)   
MLS Cup
Previous meetings: Los Angeles 2 – Real Salt Lake 2 (May 6), Real Salt Lake 2 – Los Angeles 0 (June 13)

Forget about the previous meetings…to a point: The two teams have changed considerably over the course of the past five months and both coaches won't allow similar matches to unfold in this one. Those meetings may hint at how each side will attack this game, but don't expect a carbon copy considering the pressure on both teams in a Cup final.

When Real Salt Lake has the ball…: …it will keep it and move it quickly. Those who have watched RSL closely for the first time in the playoffs are starting to understand that Jason Kreis' side possesses the ball pretty darn well when given the chance. This isn't a new phenomenon; RSL has shown its adroitness in possession in fits and starts this season with much of the success coming when conduit extraordinare Javier Morales provides an active link between the lines. Once RSL works the ball into dangerous spots in the middle of the park, it combines well in tight spaces and creates opportunities. In order to limit RSL's effectiveness in possession,  the Galaxy will have to ask Dema Kovalenko to clog up the space in front of the back four and force RSL to mount its attacks through the wide areas.

When Los Angeles has the ball…: …it will try to find Beckham and Donovan at every opportunity. Kovalenko and either Chris Klein or Chris Birchall on the right will funnel the ball to the star duo and allow them to lead the counter more often than not. Los Angeles can play in possession, but it often excels when it soaks up pressure and forces opposing teams to commit numbers into the attacking half. Beckham's long diagonal passes and Donovan's incisive runs spark the break heading the other way. RSL won't erase Beckham and Donovan from the game, but it can make their lives more difficult by limiting time and space on the ball at every instance. RSL will succeed defensively if it restricts the number of times Beckham has three seconds to size up a service into the attacking third or Donovan sees five yards of empty field in front of him.

A Galaxy storyline that may actually impact the game: Time and again this season, pundits have pointed out that Galaxy centerbacks Gregg Berhalter and Omar Gonzalez aren't the quickest pair of defenders in MLS. Their lack of speed wasn't a problem against Houston as the combo probably submitted the best two performances in white on the night and kept the pacy Dominic Oduro in check. With all due respect to Oduro, Real Salt Lake's combo of Robbie Findley and either Fabian Espindola and Yura Movsisyan presents a more complete and equally quick problem for the Galaxy back four. Berhalter and Gonzalez will have to produce a heady and positionally perfect performance to limit the RSL front duo on Sunday night.

A RSL storyline that may actually impact the game: Even Rodney Dangerfield would be impressed with how far RSL has taken this “no respect” mantra. At seemingly every point a microphone or recorder is placed in front of a Claret-and-Cobalt player or coach, there's a reference to how others have overlooked or underrated RSL all season. This overarching theme doesn't really matter on the field, but it does show the cohesive nature of the squad. RSL takes nothing for granted and uses the perceived slight to provide additional motivation. Imagine how revved up RSL will be after reading a week's worth of press clippings casting them as an underdog with little chance to topple the Galaxy.

RSL should…: …test Beckham's ailing right foot. Beckham hasn't trained since the Dynamo game (not a big deal) and has been seen wearing a protective boot recently (perhaps a big deal). There's no way Beckham will miss the contest, but RSL would be wise to get stuck in on him early and often to see just how much pounding the England international can take.

Los Angeles should…: …press Nat Borchers and Jamison Olave when they have the ball in the early stages. The RSL centerbacks navigated through an occasionally iffy opening quarter of an hour before settling down and submitting a pair of dedicated and impressive performances in Chicago. A bit of high pressure may just lead to the turnover that could turn the match on its head. Occasional pressure on Olave throughout the match wouldn't be the worst idea either; the Colombian is strong in the tackle and in the air, but sometimes struggles with the ball at his feet.

RSL must avoid…: …starting slowly. The Claret-and-Cobalt's performances away from Rio Tinto Stadium weren't as bad as advertised, but RSL did show the occasional tendency to stumble out of the gates. With the Galaxy's defensive proficiency and its ability to counter as RSL presses forward in search of goals, an early deficit is even less ideal than usual.

Los Angeles must avoid…: …the feeling of inevitability. Most have crowned the Galaxy as the eventual champions over the meek upstart from Salt Lake City. This match won't be as simple as predicted. In order to emerge with a win, Bruce Arena's side will have to concentrate and commit for 90 minutes. That shouldn't be a problem, but it's a point worth mentioning.

How it might unfold: Like most of the matches in the 2009 playoffs, this final should be tight and tense. Goals could be at a premium with RSL dangerous over the top and L.A. pinning its hopes on Beckham from set pieces and Donovan in the open field. Extra time wouldn't be a surprise here either. Though the prevailing winds favor the Galaxy, the RSL earns the nod here.

Why RSL? As it did on its trip to Chicago last weekend, RSL enjoys key advantages in its matchup with the Galaxy. The front duo can use its pace to get in behind the Galaxy back four, especially if the ball starts skipping on a rainy Seattle night. Morales can float from side to side to drag Kovalenko out of position and create space for himself and others in the middle. Kyle Beckerman and Will Johnson will do the hard work to limit Beckham and Donovan in the middle of the park much like Houston's Ricardo Clark did last week, though both Galaxy stars will certainly have their moments. The Galaxy doesn't use the wide areas particularly well and shouldn't stretch RSL's narrow midfield diamond or torment RSL's isolated fullbacks too much. Borchers and Olave should dominate in the air on set pieces and manhandle a Galaxy front duo that can't run past them. To cap it all off, Nick Rimando provides a decisive advantage if the match reaches penalty kicks. Given those edges, there's more than enough here to suggest RSL will lift its first trophy and confound just about everyone by halting the Galaxy's coronation.

Prediction: Real Salt Lake wins.

Kyle McCarthy writes the Monday MLS Breakdown and frequently writes opinion pieces during the week for Goal.com. He also covers the New England Revolution for the Boston Herald and MLSnet.com. Contact him with your questions or comments at kyle.mccarthy@goal.com and follow him on Twitter by clicking here.

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